Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-07T00:01:53

The high energy electron flux is likely to be mostly moderate but with diurnal peaks near or above the High threshold (1000 pfu). Some electron re-distribution is likely due to any increased geomagnetic activity as earth connects to the high speed stream from coronal hole, most likely on day 1 (7th May), followed by an upward trend thereafter. Consequently, the corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence will be low initially but is expected to rise later in the period, with an increasing chance of reaching Active levels (1e8 24-hour integrated pfu) by day 3 and 4 (9th and 10th May).