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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-06T00:09:28

The high energy electron flux is likely to be mostly Moderate but with diurnal peaks near or above the High threshold (1000 pfu). There may be an upward trend later in the period following likely coronal hole 13 influence. The corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence is similarly likely to rise later in the period, with an increasing chance of reaching Active levels (1e8 24-hour integrated pfu) by Day 4 (12th).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-05-06T00:09:28
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 20% 1%
Day 2 40% 1%
Day 3 50% 5%
Day 4 60% 10%