Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-05T00:24:50

The high energy electron flux is likely to diurnally oscillate between Moderate and High levels on days 1 and 2 (5th and 6th May). However increased geomagnetic activity from day 3 (7th May) should reduce the electrons. The corresponding 24 hour integrated electron fluence is therefore likely to rise back above the Active threshold (greater than 1e9 integrated pfu) during day 1 (5th May), before gradually returning to background levels later in the forecast period, most likely by day 3 (7th May). Electron flux and fluence may increase again later in the period due to enhancement in the solar wind from coronal hole 13, but are likely remain below thresholds.