MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-28T00:01:58
Most of the coming four-day period should be a fairly quiet time for high energy electron flux, with the current mainly background counts expected to continue. The main forecats feature is expected to be coronal hole 10, which is due on Wednesday 01 May, day four. This is likely to eventually increase both electron flux and eventually fluence, although in all probability the reaction will likely fall just outside this forecast period.
Provisionally, exceedence of Active becomes likely from day five, with coronal hole 10 the dominant persistent feature on the sun at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-28T00:01:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 5% |