Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-28T00:03:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels on Day 1 and 2 (28th and 29th May). However, flux levels are likely to increase on Days 3 and 4 (30th and 31st), with possible exceedance of the Active fluence level on Day 3 (30th). The REFM model indicates that low levels will persist through the period, although this doesn't include any influence from the expected coronal hole high speed stream . The recurrence does show a rise above the Active threshold on the equivalent of Day 3, which raises the probability of exceedance by Day 3 (30th).