Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-29T00:24:56

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to increase over the next few days, with the diurnal peak possibly reaching High levels on day 1 (29th May) and likely reaching High levels on days 2 and 3 (30th and 31st May). Therefore electron fluence is likely to exceed the Active threshold around day 3 (31st May). The REFM model is currently forecasting that low levels will persist through the forecast period, although 27-day recurrence does indicate a rise above the Active threshold on the equivalent of day 2 or 3. However, confidence is not high at present which is reflected in broadly even percentages (40 to 60%) from day 2.