MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-30T00:29:00
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to increase over the next couple of days, with the diurnal peak likely reaching High levels on days 1 and 2 (30th and 31st May), before gradually declining later in the period. The corresponding electron fluence is likely to exceed the Active threshold on days 2 and 3 (31st May and 1st June) and possibly continue into day 4 (2nd June). However, confidence is not high at present which is reflected in broadly even percentages (30 to 70%).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-05-30T00:29:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 2% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |