MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-06T00:20:56
With no significant geomagnetic activity, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate between Background and Moderate levels through the period, with corresponding 24-hour electron fluence expected to remain rather flat and below the Active threshold.
The Met Office REFM output continues to give a clear signal for a decline in activity over the next couple of days and, as long as those filament regions remain inactive, this signal is considered to offer sound guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-06T00:20:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |