MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-21T00:03:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be mainly below Active levels throughout. The Corresponding electron fluence is therefore also expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the period. Recent solar wind speeds have been insufficient to drive the fluence levels higher, and they are forecast to remain subdued during the next 4-days. The REFM recurrence and forecast both strongly indicate that below-Active levels will prevail.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-05-21T00:03:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |