MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-20T00:02:45
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between background and moderate levels on day 1 and 2 (20th and 21st May), perhaps becoming briefly high during its diurnal peak. The flux is likely to fall significantly on day 3 in response to the coronal hole high speed stream from coronal hole 15 but, as it becomes established, electron values are expected to rise again on day 4 and possibly reach high levels.
Corresponding electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-05-20T00:02:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |