Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-13T00:15:40

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at high levels, with a diurnal peak of 13,200pfu at 12/1915UTC, due to the recently enhanced solar wind environment. Mostly High levels are expected to continue through the next 24 hours, but with a gradual downward trend anticipated into Day 2 (14th). The 11th May CME is due to arrive early on Day 3 (15th), and with the associated increase in geomagnetic activity this is likely to temporarily reduce the electron flux to background levels. By Day 4 (16th) a rising trend should emerge.

24-hour electron fluence values are currently at Active levels and are likely to remain at this level through Day 1, and most probably into Day 2. Fluence levels are then anticipated to reduce below the Active threshold on Day 3 (15th) in response to the 11th May CME arrival, before rising again into Day 4 (15th) and perhaps nearing or exceeding the Active threshold by the end of the period.