Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-12T00:16:08

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has diurnally peaked at high levels today as a result of an enhanced solar wind environment, as effects from a transiting CME continue. Diurnally high peaks are possible for Days 1 and 2 (12th and 13th) but with a probable downward trend as the current CME effects subside. The anticipated 11th May CME arrival on Day 4 (15th) is then expected to temporarily lower flux levels to background.

The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period. However, Day 1 (12th) may see fluence levels rise closer to the Active threshold for a time following current enhanced flux levels. The anticipated trends in flux mentioned above should ensure fluence levels remain below the Active threshold for the following days.