Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-11T00:03:31

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) in the outer Van Allen belt at geostationary orbit is likely to continue well below Active levels through the next three days, but may rise towards he Active level on Day 4, possibly rising above the 1000 pfu threshold at the diurnal maximum. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is also likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. The REFM model is now showing a declining trend following only a modest and transitory rise in the solar wind speed over the past few days. The 27-day recurrence also strongly indicates a low trend is the most likely outcome for the next three days, but with low chance of a rise on Day 4.