Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-04T00:16:30

The high energy electron flux (>2MeV) is expected to continue Moderate to High during most days but with a probable decreasing trend in activity. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence has now declined below the Active threshold and the most likely scenario is for a decreasing trend over the next  four days.

Met Office REFM output suggests a gradual decline over the next three days, and this appears to offer sound guidance, although currently fluence values are running ahead of the model predictions. 27-day recurrence data indicates a slow decline until later on Day 2 (5 June) when levels remained mostly steady, and this outcome is the most likely scenario this forecast period.