MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-13T00:23:52
The high energy (greater 2MeV) electron flux recovered to high levels again through the diurnal cycle on 12th April, and this is likely to be repeated through much of the forecast period, but with perhaps a decreasing trend. However, any further Active intervals of geomagnetic activity would be expected to reduce electron counts to background levels at times.
Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence levels are uncertain through the forecast period, but likely to remain close to the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) though with a slight decreasing chance through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-13T00:23:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |