Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-20T00:06:42

In the likely absence of any drivers for increased electron populations, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue its current pattern, with a likely diurnal peak of Moderate flux (100-1000pfu). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold. There is a chance that the CME that left the sun on the 17th may have an Earth-directed component, and could influence electron populations between days 2 and 3. However, any potential effects are anticipated to be weak.

REFM output, as well as 27-day recurrence both indicate fluence levels are likely to remain below Active levels.