MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-27T00:43:23
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background levels, although briefly peaked at moderate levels during the diurnal cycle during the previous 24 hours.
Various minor solar wind enhancements are possible, due to weak coronal hole influences, however these are unlikely to be sufficient to raise the 24-hour integrated fluence levels to the Active threshold. The rising probabilities shown are therefore more a reflection of reducing confidence with time for the degree of coronal hole influences.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-27T00:43:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |