Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-28T00:01:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below Active levels at first possibly exceeding the Active threshold on Days 3 or 4. The corresponding fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold, but with a rise expected on Days 3 and 4. However, this depends on the strength of the high speed stream, and confidence is quite low. The strong rise above the Active threshold seen on the last rotation is not likely on this occasion due to a smaller and less organised coronal hole. So the 27-day recurrence doesn't offer useful guidance at this time. The REFM forecast model is indicating persistent low fluence levels which is considered to be more reliable. However, a probability of 30 percent is maintained for Days 3 and 4 due to low confidence.