Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-04T00:08:44

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO, and its associated fluence is currently at moderate to background levels. However the arrival of the forthcoming high speed stream from the various coronal hole features on the solar disc, is likely to enhance peak flux levels, once any initial suppression from any geomagnetic activity subsides. This will lead to a chance of Active fluence levels developing by day 3, and persisting into day 4.   

However this is low confidence, due to the poor guidance currently provided by persistence. This is because the previous enhancement was much reduced on this rotation when compared to the previous one, so starting values are very different on this occasion. Furthermore, the forthcoming high speed stream is also originating from newly developed features. Whilst REFM is providing good short-term guidance, this also is likely to be under-forecasting the expected enhancement by the end of day 3.