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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-05T00:28:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at high levels but is expected to gradually reduce through the forecast period. High levels should still be reached through the next four days, but with a lower diurnal peak on each day. 

Corresponding 24 hour fluence values are at Active levels and despite the forecast trend for reduction in the electron flux, the fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold throughout the forecast period. This is subject to any increased geomagnetic activity which could reduce the flux and subsequently fluence at a faster rate.

 

 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-03-05T00:28:27
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 90%
Day 2 90% 80%
Day 3 80% 40%
Day 4 60% 20%