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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-12T00:04:53

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently varying between moderate and high levels through the diurnal cycle, but with a decreasing trend in peak values expected through the next few days. Sharper reductions may occur due to any enhanced geomagnetic activity from CME and/or coronal hole influence. The associated fluence has risen just above the Active threshold again, but is also likely to see a downward trend over the next few days. However, by the end of the period an increase is possible once more following likely high speed stream arrival from coronal hole 87.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-03-12T00:04:53
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 99% 1%
Day 2 40% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%