Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-11T00:15:40

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux has continued at moderate to high levels. A slow downward trend is expected over the next four days, but with sharper reductions possible during any significant geomagnetic enhancements, more especially associated with any potential CME interactions.

The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is starting the period just above the Active threshold but should gradually decline below the Active threshold, perhaps with sharper reductions days 1 to 2 (11th to 12th) if enhanced geomagnetic activity occurs, most likely associated with the 8th March CME. The general decreasing trend is is supported by both the Met Office REFM output and persistence.