Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-09T00:25:08

The high energy electron flux is currently declining though remaining just above high levels (1000pfu), with the associated fluence currently just below the active threshold. Flux levels are likely to increase again on day 1, with the Van Allen belts recharging from the high speed stream of coronal hole 73. Fluence levels are then likely to take until late day 1 or early day 2, to recover to return to be just above the Active threshold level, before receding again gradually by the end of the forecast period. However, due to the unreliable persistence based signal from this feature, and the REFM forecast showing levels well below the active threshold, confidence is very low, especially by day 4.