Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-16T00:01:23

High energy electron flux as measured by GOES 15 at geosynchronous Earth orbit has now entered into a stable diurnal oscillation in the wake of coronal hole 76's influence. While this is expected to approach High flux (1000pfu) with diurnal peaks initially, this risk should wane with time in the absence of further solar wind increases.

The probabilities of Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence are therefore now low, with recent observations tending to shelve near 1e7 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 , with this change now manifesting itself in successively more damped model predictions for days one to three (the maximum range of REFM).