Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-15T00:24:07

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to rise above the Active threshold at the peak of the diurnal cycle on Day 1 (15 February). On Days 2 to 4, it is likely to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold for much of the time, dropping only during the diurnal minima. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to rise steadily during the forecast period, reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on Day 2 (16 February) and remain above it for much of Days 3 and 4. This is confirmed by the REFM model indicating a sharp rise on Day 1 and a risk of being above the Active threshold on Days 2 and 3. The current electron flux is also slightly higher than anticipated, reinforcing our confidence. However there remains some uncertainties, as the 27-day recurrence did not pass above the Active threshold during the equivalent period, we cannot afford to be too complacent.