Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-08T00:54:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain high, although moderate levels are possible for a time during the diurnal minimum on Day 1 (8th). However, levels may decline tomorrow (9th), during the anticipated slightly elevated geomagnetic activity associated with the onset of a high speed stream from coronal hole 73. An increase in values above High threshold is then likely from day 3 (10th).

The 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to remain above or close to the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, possibly decreasing below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Day 2 (9th).