Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-07T00:23:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV is currently varying diurnally between moderate and high (1e3 pfu) levels, albeit with a declining peak, with this continuing today (7th). Levels should then decline further tomorrow during the anticipated slightly elevated geomagnetic activity associated with the onset of a high speed stream from coronal hole 73. An increase in values above High threshold is then possible by the end of day 3 (9th) but more likely through day 4 (10th).

24-hour electron fluence values are currently just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Initially there is a decreasing risk of the fluence breaching the Active threshold, due to potential geomagnetic activity, but during day 4 the risk increases slightly as geomagnetic activity declines and the high energy electron flux probably exceeds the High threshold.