Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-06T00:29:04

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV is currently varying diurnally between moderate and high (1e3 pfu) levels, albeit with a declining peak. The decline is likely to continue through day 1, although still just peaking at high levels. The levels should then decline further during the onset on coronal hole 73, with an increase in values close to the high threshold then possible by the end of day 4.

24-hour electron fluence values are currently just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. There is a decreasing risk of the fluence rising back above the threshold through the period due to potential geomagnetic activity.