Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-07T00:05:23

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to increase to above Active levels during the peak of the diurnal cycle on each day, with the associated 24-hour fluence expected to rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) by Day 2. The REFM is prediction a rise above the threshold later today, continuing through the forecast period. The 27-day recurrence also indicates a rise above the Active fluence threshold on the equivalent of Day 2, persisting them for several days. This is reflected in the probabilities given above with 60 percent for Days 2 to 4, and 40 percent for Day 1. It is much less likely to rise above the Very Active threshold.