Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-31T00:27:03

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to rise above the Active threshold at the peak of the diurnal cycle through the forecast period, though with a general declining trend as solar wind speeds fall away. The 24-hour fluence level is expected to exceed the Active threshold on day 1 and 2, then is expected to dip just below the active threshold for days 3&4 as the solar winds speeds return to background levels. This is reflected in the REFM forecast which has levels very close to or above the Active threshold at first with slow declines later in the forecast period. However, during the previous rotation this coronal hole failed to lead to a rise in the electron fluence and levels remained low, which reduces confidence somewhat.