Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-14T00:01:50

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period, although with a chance of rising above on Days 3 or 4 if Earth connects to the high speed stream. The associated 24-hour fluence is unlikely to breach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with low chance by Day 3 or 4. Both the forecast REFM model and the 27-day recurrence have levels well below the Active forecast level. This suggests that fluence levels will not rise above the Active threshold during the forecast period, although with fairly low confidence towards the end of the period. There is a low chance of rising above if Earth connects strongly to coronal hole 66, but this is considered unlikely at present.