MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-15T00:00:54
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period. Therefore the associated 24-hour fluence will also remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is well reflected in both the REFM forecast model and the 27-day recurrence. With solar wind speeds currently running below levels seen during the previous rotation there is insufficient energy to drive the electron fluence levels higher. The REFM output therefore is considered to offer good forecast guidance for the next four days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-15T00:00:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |