Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-16T00:03:50

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at moderate to high levels in line with the diurnal cycle. As the solar wind is at ambient levels this variation is expected to continue today (Day 1), albeit with a slightly declining peak. The onset of any high speed stream from coronal hole 58 should act to reduce the flux through magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity. The flux and resulting fluence should then remain low, based on persistence forecasting, but there is a slight chance the flux may recover if the wind remains high and geomagnetic activity remains mute.