Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-17T00:04:43

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) was at moderate to high levels in the past 24 hours, with a peak value of 1430pfu at 16/2020UTC. The flux is expected to continue at mainly moderate to high levels throughout, perhaps with an overall slow declining trend due to electron loss from the Van Allen belts while Earth's magnetosphere undergoes some minor compression from slightly elevated solar winds until day 3 (19th).

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is steady just below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and is  expected to remain below, but close to, the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with either a steady or slow declining trend. With fluence levels expected to be close to the Active threshold, a slight chance of returning to Active levels is maintained throughout the forecast period in response to any unexpected rises in flux levels.