Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-10T00:11:23

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is currently at background levels. However, with an ongoing high speed stream electron counts are expected to continue steadily increasing, although some temporary redistribution is likely associated with any increased geomagnetic activity, especially on Day 1 (10 Dec). There is an increasing likelihood of peak flux levels reaching or exceeding the high threshold (1000 pfu) on the diurnal maximum as the forecast period progresses.

The corresponding high energy (>2MeV) electron fluence is also expected to show a rising trend through the period. There is an increasing chance that the fluence will reach the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) from Day 2 (11 Dec). This is the level that fluence approached during the previous rotation.