Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-11T00:27:48

The high energy (>2MeV) electron flux is currently at moderate to high levels, with the potential for further slight increases during day 1, as the Earth remains within the high speed stream of coronal hole 54/-. However this fast wind is currently declining, leading to some uncertainty regarding the extend of any further enhancement. This lowers confidence within this electron fluence forecast. 

Furthermore, this coronal hole has so far displayed solar wind parameters similar to persistence, perhaps indicative that a similar electron fluence progression can also be expected. However, on the previous rotation electron flux values continued to oscillate between moderate and high values, such that the total fluence failed to reach Active levels. Conversely REFM currently suggests Active levels are likely to be reached by the end of day 1 or day 2. 

With the high speed stream currently ongoing, and considering the current flux values, the most likely scenario is that Active fluence levels will be reached, with the greatest chance during day 2, but perhaps later on day 1 and extending into day 3.  The fluence values are then expected to gradually decline.