Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-12T00:25:02

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux observed at GEO has become persistently high during the 12 hours prior to the issue of this forecast. This is now expected to remain mostly at these high levels for at least days 1 and 2, with only occasional reductions to moderate during 24 hour minimum periods.  However confidence falls by day 3, with peak flux values likely showing a slight day to day decline. 

With persistent high electron flux, fluence levels are now expected to soon become Active on day 1, and then likely persist into day 2 and into day 3. Confidence then falls later day 3 and during day 4, both due to the gradual reduction in peak flux, but also due to any potential geomagnetic activity ahead of the arrival of any fast wind associated with small coronal hole 58.