Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-14T00:04:44

The high energy electron flux is currently at background to moderate levels, varying with the diurnal cycle, while the corresponding 24-hour fluence is well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), currently around 1e7 integrated pfu.

With some geomagnetic enhancements expected at times during today (14th) and tomorrow (15th), flux levels and the corresponding fluence are expected to remain around current levels.  During day 3 (16th) as geomagnetic activity subsides but solar winds remain slightly elevated, the flux level may begin to show a rising trend, continuing through day 4 (17th).  The fluence may then show a slight increasing trend during day 4 in response, though is most likely to remain well below the Active threshold.