Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-22T00:03:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mostly background levels on Days 1 to 2 before increasing towards the Active level by Day 4 (25th) at the diurnal maximum, following the establishment of the next high speed stream. However, the associated 24-hour fluence is unlikely to reach the Active threshold until either late Day 4, or more likely into Day 5, after the current forecast period. This is reflected in the REFM forecast, which has low levels persisting for the next few days. The REFM 27-day recurrence follows a similar pattern with the suggestion of a sharp rise towards Active fluence level (1e8 integrated pfu) on the equivalent of Day 4 or 5, towards the end of, or just after, the current forecast period.