MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-23T00:18:53
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels on day 1 (23 Jan), due to geomagnetic enhancements. The flux is then likely to increase through days 2 and 3 (24&25 Jan) as the high speed stream from coronal hole 68 continues to be either elevated or slightly elevated, with high levels during the diurnal cycle likely.
Corresponding fluence values are expected to remain at background levels through days 1 and 2, which is reflected in the REFM guidance. A sharp rise is then likely from late on day 2 (24 Jan) onwards, with the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold being probably breached late on day 3 or during day 4 (25&26 Jan).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-23T00:18:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |