Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-24T00:29:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue at background levels through day 1 and into day 2. Following the onset of the high speed stream the flux should rise, but this will be subject to geomagnetic enhancements. Assuming a favourable environment electron flux values are likely to reach high levels by day 3 on the diurnal peak. 

Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are likely to start increasing from day 3, with persistence suggesting that the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold could be reached by day 4 in response to the increasing flux values.