Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-31T00:29:25

The high electron flux is currently varying between moderate and high (1e3 pfu) levels, reaching the high on dirunal peaks. A reduction in values is likely on day 1 in line with an increase in geomagnetic activity. Electron flux values should then gradually increase over the next three days as the high speed stream sets in, but this will be subject to further geomagnetic enhancements.

Electron fluence values are showing an upward trend, and although this trend will be arrested as a result of an increase in geomagnetic activity, a general increase is forecast through the period. Therefore, a slight chance of exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is maintained through the forecast period.