MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-23T00:23:23
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain below High levels today, but from tomorrow (24th) there is an increasing chance of the flux reaching High levels at the peaks of the diurnal cycles each day. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, although an increasing trend.
The REFM model is suggesting an increase in the fluence from tomorrow (25th) with levels rising close to, but remaining below, the Active threshold. This is considered good guidance, as during the previous rotation of coronal hold 78 the fluence did not reach the Active threshold, although it did get very close, despite the solar wind speed bring approximately 150 km/s faster compared to this time around.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-23T00:23:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |