Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-24T00:04:41

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, and is expected to vary mainly between background and moderate levels throughout the forecast period, perhaps increasing slightly to peak at high levels (above 1000pfu) on day 4 (27th) once the high speed stream is fully established, though any intervals of geomagnetic storming will likely reduce electron counts rapidly back to background levels.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to remain so throughout the forecast period, though a rising trend is possible on day 4 in response to any increased flux.