MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-26T00:19:08
The high energy Electron Flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous Earth orbit was at moderate to background levels through the past 24 hours. Little overall change is anticipated until the high speed stream from coronal hole 93 becomes established. This is then expected to lead to a rising trend with high flux levels likely to develop by day 3, and perhaps with a chance of very high levels by day 4 (based on recurrence). Fluence levels will follow a similar trend and are likely to reach the Active threshold from late on day 3 (28th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-03-26T00:19:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 10% |