MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-24T12:34:27
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to start at mainly background levels on day 1, but likely to increase high to high levels (above 1e3 pfu) through the period as the high speed stream from coronal hole 06 becomes established.
Corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to steadily increase through the period, perhaps exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during day 4 (27th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-24T12:34:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |