Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-01T12:05:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue at current background levels at first, before increasing during tomorrow (2nd May) once the high speed stream is fully established and the risk of geomagnetic storming subsides, reaching mainly high levels (above 1000pfu).

The associated 24-hour electron fluence will continue well below the Active threshold at first, but is likely to rise in response to increased flux, reaching Active levels during day 3 (3rd May), and perhaps approaching the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) toward the end of the forecast period.