Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-03T00:14:25

With no significant geomagnetic activity, the high energy electron flux reached high levels on 2nd May under continuing coronal hole high speed stream influences. Although solar winds will decline through the forecast period, continued electron harvesting should see flux levels remain moderate to high. Corresponding 24 hour integrated electron fluence is expected to rise above the active threshold on day 1 (3rd May), with a chance of very active levels (above 1e9 integrated pfu) on day 2 (4th May). The current REFM is significant under-forecasting fluence levels, but its trend through day 1 is considered correct.