MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-26T00:10:54
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background levels, although briefly peaked at moderate levels during the diurnal cycle during the previous 24 hours.
Despite STEREO A's observation of the solar wind reaching speeds of 550-600 km/s, speeds of this magnitude have yet to occur at Earth, and should have by now. Therefore the solar wind is expected to remain at background to occasionally slightly elevated speeds, which are unlikely to be significant enough to increase the electron fluence to reach the Active threshold during the next four days, although a slight increase in fluence levels is expected.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-26T00:10:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |