Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-27T00:01:39

The High Energy Electron Flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain below Active levels for much of the period, although may rise above on Days 3 and 4 at the peak of the diurnal cycles in delayed response to a rise in solar wind speeds on Day 1 or 2. The 24 hour-integrated high energy electron fluence is expected to rise on Day 3 and 4, but with a breach of the Active fluence level considered a low possibility at this stage. The forecast REFM model is indicating a flat, low trend. The 27-day recurrence suggests a sharp rise above by Day 3 or 4, but the driving coronal hole 92/93 is modified and significantly smaller on this rotation, which lowers confidence. A 30 percent risk for above Active fluence on Day 3 and 4 is considered reasonable guidance at this stage.